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AYMAN AL-ZAWAHIRI, the
second-in-command of Osama bin Laden, has delivered a video statement,
broadcast by al Jazeera, threatening more terror by al Qaeda in Britain and
in the United States. His rant
must be taken extremely seriously.
First, while Osama bin Laden
is a hateful, murderous Islamist radical, there is a difference in
psychology between him and Zawahiri. Bin Laden falls into the category of
those who became radicals to fill a void in their lives. The scion of a
colossally rich family, bin Laden is said to have first arrived at the
jihadist frontlines in Pakistan, decades ago, with the typical dress and
manner of a cosmopolitan Saudi. His radicalism springs from resentment that
the Saudi kingdom has strayed from the path of pure Wahhabism, the state
religion.
Zawahiri is different. He
was recruited to the Egyptian jihadist movement as a teenager, and his
worldview has not changed since he became a young fanatic. In effect, he
has never matured and never had a normal life, even though he was trained
in medicine and has real standing as an Islamic scholar. Paradoxically,
this contrasts with bin Laden, whose only professions have been those of
playboy and terrorist.
But his Islamic studies give
Zawahiri's statements more authority and credibility with young jihadist
recruits, to whom the guidance of a Zawahiri surpasses that of a
"media star" like Bin Laden.
Finally, the strain of
Islamist extremism represented by Zawahiri, originating in Egypt with the
Muslim Brotherhood or Ikhwan, has always been more vituperative in
its view of the West than the straight Wahhabism of bin Laden. The
Egyptians adopted the Wahhabi claims to represent the only genuine Sunni
Muslims in the world, and their program for imposition of a strict Islamic
state; but they also expressed a deeper hatred and contempt for Westerners
based on their experience with British colonial rule. The same ideology
marks the Pakistani Islamists off from the Saudis, who always accepted the
need for alliances with the Christian powers in order to protect Wahhabi
dominance in the Arabian peninsula (while they attacked Shia and other
non-Wahhabi Muslims).
While it may seem
counterintuitive, the new offensive of al Qaeda, represented by the two
terror attacks in London and the Zawahiri declaration, may be expressions
of weakness on the main front in Iraq. Iraqi Sunnis are turning away from
Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and his murderous Wahhabi offensive. Shia and Kurdish
authorities are consolidating. With the Iraq jihad in decline, al Qaeda
needs to reassert its power by more bloodshed in Baghdad and new atrocities
in London and other Western cities.
But when Zawahiri speaks,
more than rhetoric is involved. Real dangers to public security cannot be
denied. Now is the time for U.S. preemptive action at home, including
monitoring of the ideological messages in Sunni mosques and stepped-up
surveillance and arrest of known radical preachers on our soil.
Stephen Schwartz is a
frequent contributor to The Weekly Standard.
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